It's the off-season so I have a lot of time on my hands. First of all, I should disclose a few of these I own and a few I don’t, more on that later.
Msft: No surprises here.. Why? Simple it always trades in a “trough” from the low/mid twenties to mid/high 30’s. It’s at the low end right now, and unlike other large cap orgs it didn’t fall below it’s trough low point to begin a new, lower breakout.. I’m sure a chart tactician would scold me for not using the right terminology here.
Two ways to go here, add to your position, hold for the long term or hold for 12 months and swing trade it when it perks up.
Apple: Another no brainer. If you ever wanted to own a best-in-class org with industry leading products/services this would be the time. It’s hanging tight at about $100 a share, and I’m sure after Xmas when we have another earnings report we should see a share bump.
Why buy? Well, even with the perception that people feel like they have less discretionary income they are still spending on things like music and concerts, oh that and tourism.. Memories vs. material possessions..
Orthologic (CAPS)- Interesting drug dev outfit I’ve been following for a long time. They had a phase 2 FDA failure almost two years ago (and the stock dropped like a falling knife) because they weren’t able to show “statistically significant” evidence the peptide healed bone fractures. (that’s off the top of my head btw)… Problem was the how the trial was structured, not the drug.
It was obviously the fault of the then CEO who was fired immediately after that and replaced w/someone who’s guided other dev orgs through the FDA approval process. Why not ask for a “do-over” ? It appears they tried. Anyhow, they are looking for other applications as it applies to internal healing.
This is a penny stock (.88 as of this morning) and it’s trading in arrears of .70 of cash value, so it’s got that going for it.. Before the FDA failure it was a $6 stock and I’m sure would have crested $10 based on what I’ve seen in the past from other companies in this space.. This one is a long-term buy and hold, kinda of your lottery ticket.
Google (GOOG)- Need I say more?
Really, it’s lost half it’s value recently and not due to anything that the company is/was doing wrong, fact is they should still be making money hand over fist in any economy with their position and business model, and they are... People used to think it was *amazing* that it became a $200 stock, well right now you can get it for a little more than $390-ish give/take. Ha.
Seriously though, it’s got legs. Throwing out the 52 week high Goog has got at least a buck fifty or so in it as the market shakes out.
Lat Am (blend of Mexico, Central America, South America)
SE Asia (funds that blend Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong)
Funds whose holdings are negative beta biased. Duh, you know the Altrias (Phillip Morris) of the market.
Why? Blended funds offer a hedge of single country funds, right now it doesn’t seem to matter too much. There are funds that are short of the markets and they are doing really well.. I wouldn’t put my money in those for more than 6-9 months btw.
The emerging markets still have more top-line growth in them as a rule vs. the US economy.
Sure, there are sectors in the US that have some more room, but the US is a really mature (duh) economy, so as rule it’s going to grow more slowly (and more predictable too).. If you wanted, you can be long the markets in something like QQQQ (Nasdaq, the entire market) but to me that’s a get-to-it-later kind of hedge on your portfolio kind of purchase.
What will I buy first? I dunno. Probably Msft, then CAPS and try to get to the others around Nov hoping they sink a bit.
Disclosure: I’m heavily weighted toward BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) at the moment, holdings are in Asia & Lat Am. I don't hold Msft, Goog, CAPS, Apple.